How serious this confrontation between Morsi/Brotherhood and SCAF/Military (Deep State) - this view says this is just like ‘a jab’. (Of course there are different views outthere.)
There is a sense of kabuki theater at play—with such choreographed displays merely being the public extension of a deeper dance between the Brotherhood and the combined SCAF/judiciary forces. It’s likely that this isn’t a destabilizing confrontation so much as a trial balloon for the shape of the eventual SCAF/Brotherhood deal; the Brotherhood (having secured the presidency) concedes this Parliament, but negotiates its own face-saving timeline.
Outbursts such as Tuesday’s also serve as barometers for measuring just how much support the Brotherhood has outside its usual base. It’s fair to assume that the Islamist organization’s hardcore loyalist cadre comprises about 25 percent of active voters—that’s the number that voted for Morsi from among 12 other candidates in first-round elections. The other 26 percent that Morsi attracted in order to claim his narrow presidential runoff victory come from non-Brotherhood voters—many of whom openly distrust and dislike the Islamist group, but sought to block Morsi’s rival, Hosni Mubarak–era prime minister Ahmed Shafiq.
The Brotherhood has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to fill Tahrir Square to respectable levels and maintain a long-term presence there. But it has struggled in recent months to find allies among the other revolutionary forces.
Thanks to a combination of exhaustion, disillusionment with the state of the revolution, and distrust of the Brotherhood, many revolutionaries have ceded control of the Tahrir Square pulpit to its latest tenants. Many feel no particular urge to become pawns in a Tahrir-based chess match between the Brotherhood and the SCAF; they wish for a scenario that weakens both.
The crowds in Tahrir Square on Tuesday (and for the past several weeks) were overwhelmingly Islamist and overwhelmingly male. The old mingling of secularists and Islamists and the high percentage of female protesters that characterized revolutionary Tahrir Square are tokens of a bygone era. Having fought its way to true power, the Brotherhood now finds itself comparatively alone.
“They’ve become more and more isolated,” said Wael Nawara, a secularist activist and cofounder of the liberal Ghad (Tomorrow) Party. “I don’t think the Constitutional Court would have dared to dissolve the Parliament if it sensed that the Brotherhood had more support.”