It’s imperative that Washington gain a much better understanding of Turkey’s strategic direction with respect to Kurdistan and Iraq, and do everything possible to develop a common approach — or at least avoid unpleasant surprises. And if in fact a truly federal, democratic and unified Iraq that puts as much oil as possible onto world markets remains an important U.S. interest — as it should, especially in light of the current squeeze on Iranian oil sales — then helping the KRG and Baghdad resolve their intensifying political conflicts, including over the national hydrocarbons law, should again become a top priority for American diplomacy. While the Obama administration might like indulging the fiction that their hands-off approach to Iraq is encouraging its politicians to solve their own problems, the reality is that outside actors — be it enemies in Iran or allies in Turkey — are aggressively pursuing their own national interests and deeply involved in determining not only Iraq’s future, but potentially the map of the Middle East. That’s a game that America very much needs to be in, the sooner the better.

If the current sanctions were lifted to allow foreign capital and knowledge into Iran, the country could boost oil production to 6 or 7 million barrels a day.

“Iran could double its oil production if the right investments are made,” said Nansen Saleri, a Turkish-born former head of oil field management for Saudi Aramco who now runs the Houston-based oil consultancy Quantum Reservoir Impact. But the current regime has to fall, which Saleri says, “is just a matter of time.”

Saleri’s view of impending regime change there may be optimistic. Most analysts say Iran’s government is in no real imminent danger.

But his extensive knowledge and contacts in the region make him well placed to evaluate Iran’s oil assets. And he’s not alone in his opinion.

“The discoveries there have been huge,” said Manouchehr Takin, an analyst at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London who worked in Iran’s oil industry before the 1979 revolution. “Billions of barrels have been added in the last few years.”

Iran’s oil revenue could halve. Top buyers are moving to cut imports of crude from the Islamic Republic amid a coordinated effort by the West to tighten sanctions. If Tehran has to sell the oil it does manage to shift at a discount, it may soon face the pinch.The republic generated $100 billion in oil revenue last year, assuming exports of 2.5 million barrels per day and an average Brent price of $111 per barrel. That is roughly 20 percent of GDP and 80 percent of general government revenue, based on estimates by the International Monetary Fund for 2011.Sanctions could cut Iran’s oil exports by as much as 1 million barrels per day, or 40 percent, from the middle of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. That’s when both the European Union embargo and U.S. sanctions on third countries which don’t significantly cut their imports from Iran come into force. America’s threat to cut off central banks of countries that don’t play ball is already causing Asian countries to reduce their purchases: a fall of between 10 and 20 percent in exports to these nations seems reasonable.

Official figure for export is 2.6 million barrel a day - and then this estimate is 1 million barrels per day of decline in export.

38.4% decline. 

Then are there more serious examination on this. 

cf: 

Iran Sanctions Are Having a Quicker Impact Than Expected (March 7th 2012, WSJ)

Tehran’s offer comes a week after Pakistani officials revealed that Iran had asked to import a million tonnes of wheat in a barter deal, with the latest Western sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear program disrupting critical food imports. 

“It is only an initial offer of 80,000 barrels (per day) on deferred payment at the moment,” Irfan Qazi, a spokesman for Pakistan’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, told Reuters.

“We don’t know about the modalities or how it can be worked out yet. A delegation from the ministry will visit Iran in the middle of March to follow up on this offer.”

Pakistan would import Iranian fertilizer and iron ore under that wheat proposal.

Energy-starved Pakistan is looking to increase its fuel imports to reduce power shortages that have crippled industry, prompted riots and shaved percentage points off its GDP growth. […]

Tehran has dramatically widened its reach on international grain markets in February, using currencies other than dollars and euros as alternative trade finance, with dealers also reporting talk of barter deals involving oil and gold.

Iran has to import wheat?

What’s going on with all these so many countries having need to import such basic items? 

The national average will likely peak in late April, [Tom] Kloza said, rising as high as $4.25 per gallon.

And the worst scenario.

forzionssake:

“An American-Israeli drilling consortium on Sunday announced the discovery of a new Mediterranean natural gas field about 120 km northwest of the Haifa coast. The Noble Energy-Delek Group said in a statement that the find lies beneath 5,500 meters of sand and water, in 40-meter thick gas- bearing strata, according to the Globes business daily. The report said the field may contain between 34 billion to 37 billion cubic meters of gas.”

Very significant development. A must read for those who have stake in Israel-Palestine and Lebanon.

Really. This is potentially a quite big deal.  

Hossein Ibrahimi, a member of the parliament’s national security committee, said legislators will now discuss a pre-emptive ban on Sunday with “double urgency” in response to the EU oil embargo. This should mean the bill will be approved on Sunday by parliamentarians and then by the Guardian Council, the constitutional watchdog, on the same day. The law can then be notified to the government immediately. “We want to cut oil exports to Europe next week for which we are preparing a double-urgency bill,” Mr Ibrahimi told the semi-official Fars news agency.

(Reuters) - The U.N. nuclear watchdog Monday confirmed plans for a January 29-31 visit to Iran and said its main objective was to “resolve all outstanding substantive issues,” referring to suspicions of military dimensions to the Iranian atomic energy programxt”.

A senior International Atomic Energy Agency team is expected to seek explanations during the talks in Tehran for intelligence information indicating that Iran has pursued research and development relevant to nuclear weapons, diplomats say.

The IAEA mission will be led by Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts, head of nuclear safeguards inspections worldwide, and will include Rafael Grossi, the assistant director general for policy. […]

“The overall objective of the IAEA is to resolve all outstanding substantive issues,” the IAEA statement added, confirming for the first time the dates for the visit.

Will it really happen - and what would come out: need experts talking about this more

Also there is a move to hold talks in Turkey between UNSC P5 + Germany (P5+1) and Iran.

The [Saudi] kingdom, now pumping just under record rates of 10 million barrels per day, has poured billions of dollars into its vast oil fields, which on paper should ensure it has the ability to ramp up to 12.5 million bpd.

Long-standing oil policy by Riyadh, the heavyweight in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), sets aside some 1.5 million bpd as protective spare capacity.

But industry sources said pumping anywhere near the declared production capacity might involve extracting heavy crudes the market might not want. It would also be difficult to sustain higher rates for lengthy periods.

“There is very little unused capacity in the Gulf,” said an oil official in the region. “Saudi Arabia could comfortably manage an extra 500,000 barrels a day or so and, if pushed, could go up to 11 million (barrels a day).” […]

Saudi officials are confident, however, of achieving higher flows.

“Saudi Arabia can easily make 1 million to 1.5 million (barrels per day) available,” a Saudi source said about output beyond current volumes.

Since June of last year, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have been cranking oil out after failing to convince Iran and other OPEC members to agree a coordinated increase to cover the supply disruption from Libya’s civil war.

The trio has kept up the higher pace, despite the return of Libyan crude, to supply rising demand from Asia and in effort to bring oil prices below $100 a barrel to help nurture global economic growth. Increased deliveries have left Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates producing nearly flat out.

That will make it a stretch to fill a sizeable gap left by any punitive cuts in Iran’s oil exports of about 2.5 million bpd.

There are different accounts etc but

1. Kuwait and UAE already stretched to max, and
2. Saudi may not be able to cover 2.5 million BPD to make up for Iran’s supply - reliably.