The Strong do what they will; the Weak suffer what they must.
- Thucydides
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“If you want to free a society, just give them internet access. Because people, the young guys, you know, are all going to go out and see biased media, see the truth about other nations and their own nation and they’re going to be able to contribute and collaborate together.”
link» [Syria, Chemical Weapon] British scientists 'find evidence of Syrian chemical attack', Telegraph UK

Traces of sarin nerve agent - Times say. 

A secret British operation has smuggled out a soil sample which provides the first forensic evidence of the use of chemical weapons in Syria, it was reported last night.

Government scientists working at the Ministry of Defence’s research facility at Porton Down, Wiltshere, found traces of “some kind of chemical weapon” after performing tests, according to The Times.

The tests at Porton Down reportedly concluded that the chemical traces were from a weapon rather than gas sometimes used by the Syrian security forces to put down protests.

“There have been some reports that it was just a strong riot-control agent but that is not the case - it’s something else although it can’t definitively be said to be sarin nerve agent,” one source told the newspaper.

The sample was reportedly smuggled out of Syria in a mission involving MI6 last month.

It was not clear whether the sample was from Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, where more than 20 people were alleged to have been killed in a chemical attack last month.

Both the Syrian regime and rebel groups accused the other side of using chemical weapons but definitive evidence has not yet emerged to support either claim, or even to prove that chemical weapons were used at all.

The Ministry of Defence declined to comment on the reported tests at Porton Down.



April 12, 2013, 7:29pm  0 notes

link» [Southern Syria] Saudi Arabia backs push to carve out liberated southern Syria, Telegraph UK

Saudi Arabia is backing a push by Syrian opposition rebels to carve out a “liberated” area in southern Syria, opening a key route of attack on Damascus.

To secure Damascus - from South, also to contain if crazies come rushing down.



April 05, 2013, 2:26pm  0 notes


West training Syrian rebels in Jordan,  Julian Borger and Nick Hopkins, March 8 2013
[UK Guardian] Exclusive: UK and French instructors involved in US-led effort to strengthen secular elements in Syria’s opposition, say sources.

West training Syrian rebels in Jordan,   and March 8 2013

[UK Guardian] Exclusive: UK and French instructors involved in US-led effort to strengthen secular elements in Syria’s opposition, say sources.

link» US Official: No evidence of chemical weapons use in Syria - AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration has no evidence to back up a claim by Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime that the U.S.-backed Syrian rebels used chemical weapons, the White House said Tuesday.

A U.S. official told the AP there was no evidence either side had used such weapons Tuesday in an attack in northern Syria, disputing a competing claim by rebels that it was regime forces who fired the chemical weapon.

The origin of the attack is still unclear, the official added. But the official noted that the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons also is reporting no independent information of chemical weapons use. The official wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity to the AP.



March 19, 2013, 1:58pm  0 notes

 
“There are those who sit on their couches and say … do not negotiate. We don’t negotiate about the regime remaining, but for its departure at the lowest cost in blood and destruction,”

January 30, 2013, 7:29pm  3 notes

flisteen:

Mary by Spaak on Flickr.

flisteen:

Mary by Spaak on Flickr.

Syria - Lavrov, Brahimi Press Conference

  • But then it’s too complicated
  • Is Russia really changing its stance/position - but how much? Enough to make sense or - it’s just some verbal willy-nilly and not making any real sense. 
  • Brahimi sounding in (appearing-ly) unison with Lavrov - that ‘Military solution is not attainable, political solution is the only way out. Otherwise there will be hell.’ 
  • Does this mean what? UN mediator siding with Russia. Stupidity? or anything/something substance making this happening?
  • Many experts were basically plain cynical - about this round of Brahimi diplomacy (Not even critical, just plain cynical. Bad professionalism.) 
  • So not sure how much of actual importance this round of Brahimi’s move - and Russia’s expression of its stance - have. 
  • West can ignore this and just can move on. (And if fall out (Hell) takes place as Brahimi/Lavrov predicted… ? well, will see)

December 30, 2012, 2:16am   0 notes

Syria - Brahimi plan sets Assad can stay until 2014? Le Figaro reported it and UN denying the report

The Le Figaro newspaper said a solution in the offing would involve keeping President Bashar al-Assad in power until 2014 while preventing him from further renewing his mandate.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/201212251642544687.html

That’s Jazeera’s report on 25th. 3 days ago.

But now it’s on Twitter as if it’s a big news.

What’s going on? Brahimi’s visit to Syria (current one) was also reported few days earlier by some outlets - and then few days later commentators/experts on Twitter reacted to it intensely. 

And now UN having to issue denial. 

UNITED NATIONS, Dec 28 (KUNA) — In reaction to press reports, UN spokesman Martin Nesirky on Friday said the Joint Special Envoy for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi never said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad should stay in power until 2014.

“The spokesperson would like to clarify on his behalf that Mr. Brahimi never mentioned that President Assad should stay in power until 2014,” Nesirky said in a statement distributed here on Brahimi’s behalf.

He added that Brahimi “has consistently been saying that the transitionshould start as soon as possible, that a government should be established assoon as possible, and that he hopes that the crisis can be solved in 2013because it cannot wait until 2014”.

http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2284143&language=en

I mean - who in the first place would believe transition process can take place and then  hold up?

December 28, 2012, 4:11pm   1 note
link» [Syrian rebels descending into disunity, targeting each other's looted items] Ghaith Abdul-Ahad, Guardian

“In the first month and a half the rebels were really a united revolutionary group,” Abu Ismael said. “But now they are different. There are those who are here only to loot and make money, and some still fight.” Did Abu Ismael’s unit loot? “Of course. How do you think we feed the men? Where do you think we get all our sugar, for example?”

In the chaotic economics of the war, everything has become a commodity. Abu Ismael’s unit, for example, took a supply of diesel from a school compound, and every day his unit exchanges a few jerrycans of the precious liquid for bread.

Because Abu Ismael has a supply of food and fuel his battalion is more desirable than others in the sector. Commanders who are unable to feed their men tend to lose them; they desert and join other groups.

Bullets are equally important. When military installations and warehouses are looted the battalion that captures ammunition grows by cannibalising smaller, less well-equipped units that have no bullets to hand.

In a dark apartment in the Salahuddin neighbourhood of Aleppo we sat with a group of commanders who were discussing the formation of a new brigade that would bring their various battalions together. They soon turned to the topic of loot.

One of the commanders present had led an operation into the predominantly Kurdish neighbourhood of Ashrafiya in Aleppo, but according to several fighters who were there the action failed when the army counterattacked because the rebel support units that were supposed to reinforce the front instead turned their attention to looting.

“I want to know exactly what you took that day,” the commander of a small unit told the leader of the assault. The commander opened a notebook to write, while another man held a flashlight above his head. “As long as one fights while the others are busy collecting loot we can’t advance,” he said. “The loot has to be divided equally.”

The leader started to list the luxury cars and the weapons his units had found and taken, while the other commander wrote them down in the notebook. Some of the cars would be sold back to the owners – if they paid out a hefty ransom.

How to explain all this - is the issue to me. Though I expect the world and so called Syrian experts or Middle East experts - just really go as ‘That is the reality over there’.

Why can’t - do interviews on people - all or many people actually went through all this - and see how this ‘sectarianism’ - (or lack of ‘overall coordination capacity’) emerges and plays out - and sustains and solidifies? 

Should be doable. 



December 28, 2012, 2:24am  1 note

link» [Syria] To save Syria, America needs Russia's help, Dimitri K. Simes and Paul J. Saunders, NYTimes

Moscow would probably prefer Syria’s vice president, Farouk al-Sharaa, as an interim leader, but informed Russian sources say that the Kremlin would most likely accept a rebel leader who is not an Islamic extremist — a goal that dovetails with American aims.

[*Dimitri K. Simes is the president and Paul J. Saunders is the executive director of the Center for the National Interest.]

I’m really not sure Obama admin can push - all of a sudden - such active diplomacy. It makes sense to take (of course) relations with Russia and China - into real considerations over post-Assad Syria’s situation . (There also are issues with Israel and Iran etc.) 

There are probably more activities on the ground by American side - than public perception or public are informed - but

let’s see how it goes.

  • Does Obama admin really have ‘brain’ - and is smartly calculating around this ‘lead from behind’ stance. (While there are many voices saying US’s involvement in Syria has been too little and now it is more like all too late.) 
  • Or plainly being just passive, and can’t switch gears. 


December 26, 2012, 4:50pm  0 notes

link» [Syria sent Deputy FM to Moscow, to discuss Brahimi plan] - Reuters

Syria’s Assad regime dispatched two senior diplomats to Moscow, it is reported the purpose is to discuss/seek advice on Brahimi plan. 

There is a separate report that Brahimi is also going to Moscow this Saturday. 

Though much of the predictions have been ruling out the possibility of negotiated transition. Predictions have been: 

  • Assad will fight to the end,
  • or Alawite intra coup (Alawite toppling Assad),
  • or Alawite retreating back into their coastal enclave/homeland in the west.
Maybe it is to discuss Brahimi plan or maybe it just isn’t. 

Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad and Assistant Foreign Minister Ahmad Arnous flew early Wednesday to Moscow, airport officials in Beirut told The Associated Press. 

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/26/16165202-assad-officials-head-to-moscow-to-discuss-end-to-syrian-civil-war?lite

Then Reuters reporting a Lebanese official’s account: 

Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Makdad flew to Moscow to discuss the details of the talks with Brahimi, said a Syrian security source, who would not say if a deal was in the works.

However, a Lebanese official close to Damascus said Makdad had been sent to seek Russian advice on a possible agreement.

He said Syrian officials were upbeat after talks with Brahimi, the U.N.-Arab League envoy, who met Foreign Minister Walid Moualem on Tuesday a day after his session with Assad, but who has not outlined his ideas in public.

“There is a new mood now and something good is happening,” the official said, asking not to be named. He gave no details.



December 26, 2012, 4:37pm  0 notes

 
“unlike Iraq where there was an occupying power, which had, of course, its bad elements, but also it allowed the Maliki government to unify the Arabs because the Americans undermined all the competitor militias and built up a central Iraqi state before they left. That’s not going to happen in Syria. The various militias are going to fight it out. And, secondly, there’s no oil, or very little oil. So the ability to rebuild is not, there’s just very little ability to rebuild, so it’s going to take a long time, and there are going to be tons of refugees, and there’s going to be lots of hunger and privation.”

Is an Alawite State in Syria’s Future? | Middle East Voices

Joshua Landis’s take. Very compact and thorough. (Though possibility of negotiated transition is not mentioned in this piece. Brahimi/Geneva plan is getting another push but no one thinks Assad is going to take it right now.) 

  1. Syria hasn’t sorted out any of its internal issues in its modern history
  2. Sunnis who are attacking Assad regime has many factures - ideological difference among them so they may not be able to create unity strong enough to eradicate Alawites 
  3. And future of Syria is just bleak (but won’t Sunni oil money come in for rebuilding?) 

December 23, 2012, 12:30pm  2 notes

 
“Islamists in the region await the outcome in Syria. They do not wish to bite off more than they can chew. If patience is the Islamist first principle, consolidation of gains is the second. Should Syria fall, Jordan could be next.”

This Is Not A Revolution, Hussein Agha and Robert Malley

I do hate, detest - the tone this piece is written with.

But - well, I just should find the paper handling the same content with much more regular IR expressions. 

Gotta be around already. 

December 10, 2012, 6:11pm  0 notes



“According to the FSA commander, Abu Hilal was an infamous member of the shabiha in Aleppo — ghosts in Arabic, the term given to Assad’s paramilitary forces. The rebels claimed that Hilal was notorious in Aleppo, claiming he’d murdered or assisted in the killing of six people and raping a female student at Aleppo’s university. I wanted to ask Hilal about this at the time, but he was so mentally damaged from torture that you could have told him the sky was yellow and he would have agreed. I made this picture as he began to cower when more rebels piled into the room to view their prize: a member of the regime’s hated shabiha. Later in the night, I was kicked awake and told to come outside. In the back of the dark compound, I saw a large flatbed truck. As I looked closer, I realized it was a massive truck bomb — maybe 400 kg or more, covered with recently clipped pine branches. I pondered the operation and couldn’t figure out how they were going to get the truck to their target, one of the last Syrian army checkpoints north of Aleppo. I suddenly realized the rebels’ plan — to make Hilal drive the truck to the checkpoint after convincing him he was going to be traded in a prisoner exchange. I have seen numerous people die in battle, in hospitals from wounds in combat. It can be sad and traumatic, but there is a certain contract that fighters understand in battle — you kill or be killed. For me, though, this was different. I was watching a premeditated murder by rebels I shared food with and laughed with. They were not Islamist boogeymen. They were real estate agents, accountants, students, defected soldiers and nurses. And now they were deceiving and murdering a man who had already surrendered. The rebels later returned to the compound with downcast eyes. The bomb had failed to detonate remotely and Assad’s forces had captured Hilal. I have never heard any accounts of what happened to him, though I imagine showing up to a regime checkpoint with a giant bomb is probably a surefire way to get executed. I am reminded by this about the nature of war — it’s ability to make decent people with a noble and just cause capable of absolutely terrible things, mutating them through pain and desperation.”
— Bryan Denton


But then, actual pushers, planners, architects of this war - is seeing further away.
In a way, beyond Syria.  
Thing is - the current world has no intellect or thought corresponding to that. 
I am kind of doubting it will. (I know few or some got it. Thinking about further from further away. As ‘Strategist’ - and few some others - as peacemaker.) 
But will see. 

“According to the FSA commander, Abu Hilal was an infamous member of the shabiha in Aleppo — ghosts in Arabic, the term given to Assad’s paramilitary forces. The rebels claimed that Hilal was notorious in Aleppo, claiming he’d murdered or assisted in the killing of six people and raping a female student at Aleppo’s university. I wanted to ask Hilal about this at the time, but he was so mentally damaged from torture that you could have told him the sky was yellow and he would have agreed. I made this picture as he began to cower when more rebels piled into the room to view their prize: a member of the regime’s hated shabiha

Later in the night, I was kicked awake and told to come outside. In the back of the dark compound, I saw a large flatbed truck. As I looked closer, I realized it was a massive truck bomb — maybe 400 kg or more, covered with recently clipped pine branches. I pondered the operation and couldn’t figure out how they were going to get the truck to their target, one of the last Syrian army checkpoints north of Aleppo. I suddenly realized the rebels’ plan — to make Hilal drive the truck to the checkpoint after convincing him he was going to be traded in a prisoner exchange. 

I have seen numerous people die in battle, in hospitals from wounds in combat. It can be sad and traumatic, but there is a certain contract that fighters understand in battle — you kill or be killed. For me, though, this was different. I was watching a premeditated murder by rebels I shared food with and laughed with. They were not Islamist boogeymen. They were real estate agents, accountants, students, defected soldiers and nurses. And now they were deceiving and murdering a man who had already surrendered. 

The rebels later returned to the compound with downcast eyes. The bomb had failed to detonate remotely and Assad’s forces had captured Hilal. I have never heard any accounts of what happened to him, though I imagine showing up to a regime checkpoint with a giant bomb is probably a surefire way to get executed. I am reminded by this about the nature of war — it’s ability to make decent people with a noble and just cause capable of absolutely terrible things, mutating them through pain and desperation.”

— Bryan Denton

But then, actual pushers, planners, architects of this war - is seeing further away.

In a way, beyond Syria.  

Thing is - the current world has no intellect or thought corresponding to that. 

I am kind of doubting it will. (I know few or some got it. Thinking about further from further away. As ‘Strategist’ - and few some others - as peacemaker.) 

But will see. 

link» [Syria, Chemical WMD] Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order - NBC

The Syrian military is prepared to use chemical weapons against its own people and is awaiting final orders from President Bashar Assad, U.S. officials told NBC News on Wednesday.

The military has loaded the precursor chemicals for sarin, a deadly nerve gas, into aerial bombs that could be dropped onto the Syrian people from dozens of fighter-bombers, the officials said. 

As recently as Tuesday, officials had said there was as yet no evidence that the process of mixing the “precursor” chemicals had begun. But Wednesday, they said their worst fears had been confirmed: The nerve agents were locked and loaded inside the bombs.

Sarin is an extraordinarily lethal agent. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s forces killed 5,000 Kurds with a single sarin attack on Halabja in 1988.

U.S. officials stressed that as of now, the sarin bombs hadn’t been loaded onto planes and that Assad hadn’t issued a final order to use them. But if he does, one of the officials said, “there’s little the outside world can do to stop it.”

Not sure this follow up by this ABC reporter means just relaying NBC or ABC also confirmed the report with US officials. 

Also USA Today: 

On Monday, a senior Pentagon official told the Associated Press that U.S. intelligence had detectedmovement of chemical weapon components at one site.

Fox News cites a senior U.S. official as saying the bombs must be used within 60 days or the chemical expires and must be destroyed.

At least three facilities produce Syria’s chemical weapons, according to Global Security. They are located near Damascus, Hama, and Safira, near Aleppo, the heart of the opposition.



Source: worldnews.nbcnews.com

December 05, 2012, 9:46pm  1 note