Slightly too ahead. 5 months down, in October Egypt will (or might) have next (Parliamentary) election. And then the whole this ‘keep borrowing money’ scheme can collapse and real ‘Bread Riot’ can emerge - 

Bit too linear, too much ahead into future. But as a log. 

• I really don’t find any constructive argument about alternative for Egypt’s economic policy. But maybe first political situation has to settle so that investment etc will return -
• and if political settlement does not come around, economy will really fall off the cliff and then riot like situation can ensue - (already completely stuck in that path?) 
• I recall like last week Morsi just said something like Abu Ismail’s Autarchy vision. Well, it’s no surprise anymore, but. 

On Saturday, two passengers on Cairo’s underground metro in their early 20s looked jaded, but they still shouted at the top of their voices, demanding an end to the “rule of the Supreme Guide.”

Calling him names, the two men went on a foul-mouthed outburst against Mohamed Badie, the man they believe had overruled Egypt’s elected President Mohamed Morsi and assumed effective control of the country.

The passengers, it transpired, were angry because they had been involved in a confrontation with Brotherhood members in front of the Islamist group’s headquarters in the Cairo district of Mokattam, a fortress that has long been spared street violence and attacks.

The presidential palace was a protest hotspot for several months, but it has now made way for the Brotherhood’s Cairo headquarters, a building that lies on a hill which overlooks many parts of Cairo, in a reflection of the opposition’s belief that Morsi is largely subordinate to Brotherhood leader Badie, who keeps a low profile despite being the subject of constant speculation about his actual role in Egypt.

[…]

Perhaps Badie has something to prove to some disgruntled political activists, who seem to have almost forgotten Morsi in their chants, preferring to hurl a barrage of insults at a man they believe is more influential in the unofficial ruling hierarchy.

Very ‘cool’ (really cool) and compressed description. Explanation of reasons/mechanism behind current police strikes etc.

Regardless of government leaders’ intentions regarding security sector reform, they have become more reliant on the police and repressive practices. In essence, Egypt’s interlinked set of political, economic and social crises has been met almost exclusively with securitized solutions. 

But then prediction is this ‘Securitized solutions’ - will not work. 

As it now stands, there is no political will or consensus to face the challenge of security sector reform, and Egypt’s new leaders find themselves reliant on repression to maintain their grip on power. But Egypt’s cycles of protest and violence have created a self-perpetuating dynamic, and efforts to quash dissent without addressing its underlying roots will likely fuel further instability.

Very neat piece. Very short too.

Really worth reading in full.

“The aim of this meeting is not political, but rather to launch an initiative to stop the violence. It’s a moral initiative aimed at stopping the bloodshed. That is why Egyptian youth called on Al-Azhar to hold this meeting and gather together all Egypt’s political forces and parties,” Ghoneim, a prominent activist, declared at a press conference held after the meeting.

It was not Al-Azhar’s first political initiative. Last year, the famous religious institute presented a similar initiative aimed at resolving the crisis over the drafting of Egypt’s new constitution.

ElBaradei, Fotouh, etc - most big names attended. Looking at Twitterverse atm doesn’t seem people are really taking it seriously. RTBS.

Bit long and complicated but a good capture: As some/few protesters armed - Brotherhood-police-military dynamics. (Brotherhood and police is hated. Then how military will act.)

In a departure from most previous clashes around the Egyptian revolution, in Port Said the police also faced armed assailants. Two were seen with handguns on Monday around a siege of a police station, in addition to the man with the Kalashnikov.

Earlier, a man accosted an Egyptian journalist working for The New York Times. “If I see you taking pictures of protesters with weapons, I will kill you,” he warned.

Defending their stations, the police fought back, and in Cairo they battled their own commander, the interior minister.

Brotherhood leaders say Mr. Morsi has been afraid to name an outsider as minister for fear of a police revolt, putting off any meaningful reform of the Mubarak security services. But when Mr. Morsi recently tapped a veteran ministry official, Mohamed Ibrahim, for the job, many in the security services complained that even the appointment of one insider to replace another was undue interference.

In a measure of the low level of the new government’s top-down control over the security forces, officers even cursed and chased away their new interior minister when he tried to attend a funeral on Friday for two members of the security forces killed in the recent clashes.

“What do you mean we won’t be armed? We would be disarmed to die,” one shouted, on a video recording of the event.

In an attempt to placate the rank and file, Mr. Ibrahim issued a statement to police personnel sympathizing with the pressure the protests put on them. Later, he promised them sophisticated weapons.

“That can only be a recipe for future bloodshed,” said Hossam Bahgat, executive director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, which monitors police abuses.

By turning to the military, Mr. Morsi signaled that he understood he could not rely on the police to pacify the streets, Mr. Bahgat argued.

But it was far from clear that Mr. Morsi was fully in command of the military either. The new Islamist-backed Constitution grants the general broad autonomy within the Egyptian government in an apparent quid pro quo for turning over full power to President Morsi in August. Mr. Morsi’s formal request for the military to restore order was “not so much an instruction as a plea for support,” Mr. Bahgat said.

It remains to be seen whether the military retains the credibility to quell the protests. The soldiers stationed in Port Said did nothing to intervene as clashes raged on in the streets hours after curfew Monday night.

Analysts close to the military say its officers are extremely reluctant to engage in the kind of harsh crackdown that would damage its reputation with Egyptians, preferring to rely on its presence alone.

Near the front lines of the clashes, residents debated whether they would welcome a military takeover. “The military that was sent to Port Said is the Muslim Brotherhood’s military,” said one man, dismissing its independence from Mr. Morsi.

But others said they still had faith in the institution, if not in its top generals. “In the military, the soldiers are our brothers,” said Khaled Samir Abdullah, 25. Pointing to the police, he said, “those ones are merciless.”

The conflict between the political forces “and their disagreement on running the country may lead to the collapse of the state,” Defense Minister Abdelfatah Al-Seesi was quoted as saying in a statement posted on the armed forces’ official Facebook page. The political instability and economic challenges “represent a real threat to Egypt’s security.”

Many experts saying still it’s hard to say how this is going to be resolved. Military take over and/or some kind of national reconciliation/salvation government. But how anyone can change Brotherhood’s perspective/entire psychology - that they don’t have - unilateral legitimacy over everyone else. Or talk to ‘within’ and manufacture the way it might be able to come down from the tree.