but we are actually all winds
ever more than before
even ever more than before 
towards future 
and redeeming laughters
and happiest laughters
Start page JUMO | Code for America | good.is |
“If you want to free a society, just give them internet access. Because people, the young guys, you know, are all going to go out and see biased media, see the truth about other nations and their own nation and they’re going to be able to contribute and collaborate together.”
▸ Foreign Policy: Stop The Madness, YOUSAF BUTT

  • Well, current non-proliferation regime, NPT (codes and clauses on papers) are very imperfect
  • Executing/implementing agency (IAEA) is also - not so thorough 
  • Many loop holes 
  • also (too) many problems at reinforcement

Then in that ‘slack’ or very loose regulative environment, thus very political, and psychological question is that: Can West allow Iran’s nuclear development programs? 

Probably answer is ‘Not really’. 

(It’s loose. There many loop holes and shortfalls. However, this can’t really support the argument that Iran’s case also should be tolerated.)

Then why not revise and reinforce NPT  - why not have a new, more stringent global non-proliferation treaty and enforcement regime? Answer is: it is pretty much impossible to achieve agreement for such thing among major powerful nuclear states (including proliferation sources such as Russia, China).

Then, in all this, it’s probably too timid and cynical to characterize Iran’s case as ‘Iran is just pursuing peaceful civilian capacity’. Rather Iran is surely exploiting loopholes - and its aim is to advance toward ‘nuclear weapon ready’ stage as much as possible. Getting to all necessary know-hows. Stockpiling and securing uranium fuels as much as possible. 

But then, I have to recall who said this - 'If Iran is really determined to acquire nuclear weapon, no one outside will be really able to stop that from happening'. 

The world’s reactions have been too late. That’s obvious from how informal/underground nuclear proliferation networks have been tolerated to operate globally. North Korea. Pakistan. Then of course there is no reason why Iran cannot just follow the same pattern. 

Source: NPR

Jan 26, 2012, 4:25pm  0 notes      

“Put simply, the NPT — as enforced by the IAEA via the various safeguards agreements — is not a very stringent treaty. Even Pierre Goldschmidt, a former deputy director of the IAEA Safeguards Department, admits that the organization “doesn’t have the legal authority it needs to fulfill its mandate.””

Yousaf Butt, Foreign Policy: Stop the Madness

In reality, however, Iran is not doing anything that violates its legal right to develop nuclear technology. Under the NPT, it is not illegal for a member state to have a nuclear weaponscapability — or a “nuclear option.” If a nation has a fully developed civilian nuclear sector — which the NPT actually encourages — it, by default, already has a fairly solid nuclear weapons capability. For example, like Iran, Argentina, Brazil, and Japan also maintain a “nuclear option” — they, too, could break out of the NPT and make a nuclear device in a few months, if not less. And like Iran, Argentina and Brazil also do not permit full “Additional Protocol” IAEA inspections.

January 26, 2012, 3:00pm  2 notes

▸ [IAEA visit to Iran, scheduled to start Jan 28 Sat] Iran is ready to return to nuclear talks, Ali Akbar Dareini, AP

Iran is ready to revive talks with the U.S. and other world powers, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday, but suggested that Tehran’s foes will have to make compromises to prevent negotiations from again collapsing in stalemate.

Iran’s insistence that it will never give up uranium enrichment — the process that makes material for reactors as well as weapons — scuttled negotiations a year ago and still looms as a potential deal breaker even as tougher Western sanctions target Iran’s critical oil exports.

[…] The United States and its allies want Iran to halt uranium enrichment, which they worry could eventually lead to weapons-grade material and the production of nuclear weapons. I

West/USA wants basically any uranium enrichment process to halt inside Iran, and get it ‘outsourced’ (done outside). But Iran doesn’t budge (but why?)

Analysis/reading into this point is necessary - Why Iran doesn’t want to outsource enrichment process -

Ex-IAEA personnel Peter Jenkins who dealt with Iran before recently wrote this piece on UK Telegraph, The deal the West could strike with Iran.  He thinks the deal *should be* in the way that Iran can keep enrichment but only under (absolute and complete) IAEA oversight. But he just asserts this from his *sympathy* to Iranians (or Iranian regime?) - he does not elaborate on the issue from technical/expert point of view. (Why?) 

What’s the difference? Either outsourcing enrichment or allowing it with oversight. Why Iran asserts on keeping enrichment local/indigenous?

Wish it were easier to find technical and political analysis on these points.

By so far, kinda hard to find them. 

Source: google.com

Jan 26, 2012, 2:49pm  0 notes      

▸ The deal the West could strike with Iran - Peter Jenkins, Telegraph

  • Allow Iranians to continue enrichment process
  • but under strict/absolute IAEA monitoring and verification
Peter Jenkins was Britain’s permanent representative to the IAEA, 2001–06

And in 2003, he negotiated with Iranians about their nuclear programme. This is his current view.

Jan 24, 2012, 3:13am  4 notes      

▸ Hundreds of North Korean nuclear and missile experts working in Iran

Hundreds of North Korean nuclear and missile experts have been collaborating with their Iranian counterparts in more than 10 locations across the Islamic state, a diplomatic source said Sunday.

The revelation lends credence to long-held suspicions that North Korea was helping Iran with a secret nuclear and missile program.

It also represents a new security challenge to the international community as it seeks to curb the nuclear ambitions of Pyongyang and Tehran, and thwart trading of nuclear and missile technology.

Nov 16, 2011, 11:58pm  10 notes