but we are actually all winds
ever more than before
even ever more than before 
gaining 
speeding 
booming
towards future 
speeding
and redeeming laughters
and happiest laughters
Start page JUMO | Code for America | good.is |
“If you want to free a society, just give them internet access. Because people, the young guys, you know, are all going to go out and see biased media, see the truth about other nations and their own nation and they’re going to be able to contribute and collaborate together.”
zeitvox:

Dear President Obama: Listen to the Israelis, not the LikudJuan Cole »

…The poll shows that the vast majority of Israelis does not think that  their government should strike Iran without the support of the United  States.  It shows that only about half of Israelis think that the result  of such a strike would be a delay in Iran’s nuclear program lasting  more than a couple of years, and 12% believe it would accelerate the  program.  A fifth think it would have no effect at all.
…As for their preference for a US president, Barack Obama has a slight  lead among Israeli Jews over Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, and a big  lead over Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.  Given that all the GOP candidates  but Paul have virtually joined the Likud Party and committed verbal  genocide against the Palestinians, it is remarkable how little swayed  Israeli Jews have been by these extravagant positions.  Obama remains  relatively popular with Israeli Jews, not despite his commitment to a  peace process rejected by the Likud government but because of it. >continue<

Although public opinion (at least in the US) often has little to do with either rationality or truth, it appears to say something when large numbers of Israeli’s harbour doubts - even up against the supposed “existential threat” posed by Iran.

One key point of analysis of this poll’s is that USA/Obama has a room for influencing views held by Israelis. Israelis do seem to listen to the expert analysis of the issue coming from USA. 

In fact, their views seem to partly reflect the White House’s assessment of the consequences of war and the problems created by military action.
[…] 
Israelis appear to be influenced by America’s judgment.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73390_Page2.html#ixzz1o1WqnzgZ

And one point I find interesting is that the analysis says - 

They [Israelis] don’t support a strike without U.S. backing, a new poll shows, even though they are not fearful of Washington’s retribution if they go against U.S. advice.

But then, just today? - the Obama interview released by Atlantic has this: 

“[Obama] will order the U.S. military to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if economic sanctions fail to compel Tehran to shelve its nuclear ambitions.”
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/

And now I’m wondering Obama’s tough talk is just a performance for AIPAC week - or to counter GOP candidates or part of diplomacy - pressuring Iran - or maybe this is his next Afghanistan.
Hope not. 

zeitvox:

Dear President Obama: Listen to the Israelis, not the Likud
Juan Cole »

…The poll shows that the vast majority of Israelis does not think that their government should strike Iran without the support of the United States. It shows that only about half of Israelis think that the result of such a strike would be a delay in Iran’s nuclear program lasting more than a couple of years, and 12% believe it would accelerate the program. A fifth think it would have no effect at all.

…As for their preference for a US president, Barack Obama has a slight lead among Israeli Jews over Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, and a big lead over Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. Given that all the GOP candidates but Paul have virtually joined the Likud Party and committed verbal genocide against the Palestinians, it is remarkable how little swayed Israeli Jews have been by these extravagant positions. Obama remains relatively popular with Israeli Jews, not despite his commitment to a peace process rejected by the Likud government but because of it. >continue<

Although public opinion (at least in the US) often has little to do with either rationality or truth, it appears to say something when large numbers of Israeli’s harbour doubts - even up against the supposed “existential threat” posed by Iran.

One key point of analysis of this poll’s is that USA/Obama has a room for influencing views held by Israelis. Israelis do seem to listen to the expert analysis of the issue coming from USA. 

In fact, their views seem to partly reflect the White House’s assessment of the consequences of war and the problems created by military action.

[…] 

Israelis appear to be influenced by America’s judgment.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73390_Page2.html#ixzz1o1WqnzgZ

And one point I find interesting is that the analysis says - 

They [Israelis] don’t support a strike without U.S. backing, a new poll shows, even though they are not fearful of Washington’s retribution if they go against U.S. advice.

But then, just today? - the Obama interview released by Atlantic has this: 

“[Obama] will order the U.S. military to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if economic sanctions fail to compel Tehran to shelve its nuclear ambitions.”

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/

And now I’m wondering Obama’s tough talk is just a performance for AIPAC week - or to counter GOP candidates or part of diplomacy - pressuring Iran - or maybe this is his next Afghanistan.

Hope not. 

 
“From the tone of this Wall Street Journal article, it appears that Bibi is coming to Washington seeking a virtual guarantee that the U.S. will attack Iran if Israel does not do so.”

The Total Collapse

(Said article is behind pay wall : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203833004577249841698142780.html)

David Brooks (NY Times columnist) said the same thing on NPR’s All Things Considered (March 2nd 2012, today. He mentioned the name of Jeffrey Goldberg’s interview with Obama?  in junction but not sure how it’s relevant.) 

I don’t trust Jeffrey Goldberg nor David Brooks. They are not really up-to-date, tend to be few steps behind, and I feel they are more about catering to shape public opinion at particular timings, without much context or consistency.

And Obama doesn’t have to deliver explicit promise on this at AIPAC.  Or even he does, well, it’s just words. So he can promise that too. 

The point is USA nor Israel might not have 1) capacity to destroy Iran’s facilities 2) stomach for risks and fallouts could follow such attacks on Iran, which can be enormous and become uncontrollable. 

But until something decisive happens, USA and Israel has to continue to keep up the pressure - in words and sanctions. 

Can take long. Meh. 

March 02, 2012, 4:28pm  0 notes

▸ [Iran, IAEA Report: Iran Tripled Pace of Uranium Enrichment] - Bloomberg

Iran has increased the number of machines it’s using to enrich uranium at its Natanz complex by 14 percent and has begun enriching material at its underground Fordo complex near the holy city of Qom.

Iran is now making almost 31 pounds (14 kilograms) of 20 percent-enriched uranium a month compared with almost nine pounds (4 kilograms) in November, according to the report.

Though source and timing of this information is not clear, is it possible/reasonable to assume that Iran revealed this information during late Jan IAEA visit to Tehran? 

Iran may be able to stockpile as much as 638 pounds of 20 percent enriched uranium, said Olli Heinonen, a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, in a Feb. 15 telephone call.

That’s enough to make as many as two nuclear weapons if Iran decided to continue enriching to weapons-grade, which is 90 percent, according to Heinonen, who as the IAEA’s chief inspector visited Iranian facilities until 2010.

Iran increased its supply of 20 percent-enriched uranium to almost 240 pounds from just over 162 pounds reported in November, the IAEA said. Iran has produced almost 12,000 pounds of uranium enriched to less than 5 percent compared to slightly more than 10,828 pounds in the last IAEA report.

About 1,386 pounds of low-enriched uranium, if further purified, could yield the 33 pounds to 48 pounds of weapons- grade uranium an expert bomb maker needs to make a weapon, according to the London-based Verification Research, Training and Information Center, a non-governmental observer to the IAEA funded by European governments.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-24/iran-dismissed-weapons-concerns-tripled-uranium-production-iaea-says.html

(Then roughly, 300 pounds of 20% enriched uranium = 1 bomb, 1386 pound of low-enriched uranium=1 bomb. That means Iran is yet to have enough 20% uranium for the first bomb, if the declared amount is truthful - and if it’s not secretly running hidden enrichment facilities… though somehow it certainly is increasing its uranium enrichment production while all these diplomatic tensions and sanctions, and also while completely denying IAEA access to any of its key enrichment and weapon R&D facilities. )



Source: bloomberg.com

Feb 24, 2012, 5:48pm  0 notes      

▸ [IAEA, Iran] U.N. agency: Iran rapidly expanding nuclear work [also nuclear material missing]

(AP)  VIENNA - The U.N. nuclear agency says Iran has rapidly ramped up production of higher-grade enriched uranium over the last four months, in a confidential report that feeds concerns about how quickly the Islamic Republic could produce an atomic bomb.

Friday’s report by the International Atomic Energy Agency also said Iran had failed to give a convincing explanation about a quantity of missing uranium metal. Diplomats have said the missing amount could be used for experiments used to arm a warhead.



Source: cbsnews.com

Feb 24, 2012, 12:10pm  2 notes      

 
“We are not after an atomic weapon. We want to break the supremacy (of the world powers) that relies on nuclear weapons. God willing, the nation will reach this goal.”

Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 

AFP | UN atomic agency says no breakthrough on Iran visit

February 22, 2012, 1:31pm  1 note

 
“The possible outlines of an Israeli attack have become a source of debate in Washington, where some analysts question whether Israel even has the military capacity to carry it off. One fear is that the United States would be sucked into finishing the job — a task that even with America’s far larger arsenal of aircraft and munitions could still take many weeks, defense analysts said. Another fear is of Iranian retaliation.”

Could Israel Go It Alone in Iran? Would the U.S. Be Sucked In? - NYTimes

And worse. 

There is no way USA can bombard Iran for weeks - during this election year. It will make everything - international politics and domestic USA politics - all too uncertain. 

February 20, 2012, 9:38am  1 note

 
“All the pundits who talk about ‘Oh, yeah, bomb Iran,’ it ain’t going to be that easy,”

Rt. Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula Iran Raid Seen as Complex Task for Israeli Military - NYTimes

WASHINGTON — Should Israel decide to launch a strike on Iran, its pilots would have to fly more than 1,000 miles across unfriendly airspace, refuel in the air en route, fight off Iran’s air defenses, attack multiple underground sites simultaneously — and use at least 100 planes.

February 20, 2012, 9:34am  0 notes

▸ U.S. concerned that Barak is pushing for Israeli attack on Iran - Haaretz

Visits to Jerusalem by senior U.S. officials this week reflect a growing concern in Washington over the possibility that Israel will decide to attack nuclear sites in Iran. The Americans are particularly worried about the hawkish line that Defense Minister Ehud Barak has adopted on the matter. They apparently have the impression, however, that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to come to a final stance on the dispute.

The number of visits that have been made here by senior members of President Barack Obama’s administration in recent months is unusual. […]

Washington, like Jerusalem, appears to be under the impression that Barak will play a key role in Netanyahu’s decision-making. According to various assessments, in the constellation of forces within the senior forum of eight capital ministers, Barak represents the hawkish camp, while ministers Moshe Ya’alon, Dan Meridor and Benny Begin are leading the opposition to an assault at this time.

In a report in the New York Times about two weeks ago, U.S. administration officials were critical of Barak, who has warned against the prospect within a few months of Iran entering a “zone of immunity,” after which it would be impossible to destroy its nuclear facilities. Barak defines the “zone of immunity” in accordance with Iran’s progress in installing centrifuges at the Fordow underground site near Qom, the location of which would make an aerial assault much more difficult.

Okay so Barak means (only) “few months” by “zone of immunity” (the point when Iran’s nuclear enrichment program will become invulnerable to military/air attacks.)

And just yesterday there was a report that thousands of new, advanced model of centrifuges are ready to be set up in Fordow (/Fodow, Qom) underground facility.

Sanction and P5+1 talks - have to bring up result fairly rapidly (and then this week’s IAEA visit, which probably going to produce no new result).

Though it is mostly believed that Israel’s strikes against Iran’s facilities won’t accomplish desired outcomes, and rather it will lead to the opposite. 



Feb 19, 2012, 11:02pm  2 notes      

▸ Special Report: Iran's cat-and-mouse game on sanctions | Reuters

The ships and containers are key parts in an international cat-and-mouse game, as Iran attempts to evade the trade sanctions tightening around it. Washington and European capitals want to stop or slow Iran’s nuclear program. They believe Iran Shipping Lines(IRISL), which moves nearly a third of Iran’s exports and imports and is central to the country’s trade, plays a critical role in evading sanctions designed to stop the movement of controlled weapons, missiles and nuclear technology to and from Iran.

An analysis of shipping data sheds new light on that deception. Using data from IHS Fairplay, a ship tracking group that uses ship registration documents from various sources, and Reuters Freight Fundamentals Database, which compiles location data from every ship’s Automatic Identification System, shows that despite the sanctions 130 of the 144 banned ships in IRISL’s fleet continue to call at many of the world’s major ports hidden behind a web of shell companies and diverse ownership.



Feb 19, 2012, 5:28pm  0 notes      

▸ Iranian arms smugglers using European ship firms: study | Reuters

"By using respectable mainstream European shipping companies in countries such as Germany and France, they make them their unwitting accomplices,” said Hugh Griffiths, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Container shipping companies generally cannot verify the cargo they transport in the sealed containers.

The owners of the vessels appear to have been unaware of the nature of the illicit cargo, said SIPRI, which conducts independent research on international security, armaments and disarmament.



Feb 19, 2012, 5:24pm  0 notes      

▸ U.S. official: Signs pointing to increasing likelihood of Israeli strike on Iran - Haaretz

U.S. wants Israel to wait a few months in order to give the international sanctions against Iran a chance before deciding on an attack.

As U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon arrived in Saturday night to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue with top Israeli officials, a U.S. official has told Haaretz that all the messages from Israel in recent months pointed to the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran.

Donilon is set to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and advisers on Sunday, as part of preparations for Netanyahu’s scheduled visit to Washington, D.C. next month, which will include a meeting with President Barack Obama.



Feb 19, 2012, 2:12am  0 notes      

▸ IAEA Iran visit [this Monday] may be 'last chance' to avoid further sanctions - IRAN - FRANCE 24

 The UN atomic agency’s second visit to Iran in a month next week could be Tehran’s “last chance” to show goodwill on its nuclear programme and avoid sanctions, but analysts and diplomats are less than hopeful.

After a first visit on January 29-31 produced few results, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced it would return to Tehran on February 20-21. […]

"The second meeting will be a last chance for Iran to make a significant gesture," said Mark Hibbs, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.



Feb 19, 2012, 2:09am  1 note      

▸ AP Exclusive: [Diplomats say Iran Ready with Thousands of New Generation of Centrifuges]

They said Tehran has put finishing touches for the installation of thousands of new-generation centrifuges at the cavernous facility — machines that can produce enriched uranium much more quickly and efficiently than its present machines.

While saying that the electrical circuitry, piping and supporting equipment for the new centrifuges was now in place, the diplomats emphasized that Tehran had not started installing the new machines at its Fordo facility and could not say whether it was planning to.

Still, the senior diplomats — who asked for anonymity because their information was privileged — suggested that Tehran would have little reason to prepare the ground for the better centrifuges unless it planned to operate them. They spoke in recent interviews — the last one Saturday.



Feb 19, 2012, 2:03am  1 note      

▸ Ahmadinejad: Iran will soon announce major nuclear achievements - Reuters/Haaretz

Demonstrators carrying Iranian flags and pictures of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chanted “Death to Israel” and “Death to America”.

"In the coming days the world will witness Iran’s announcement of its very important and very major nuclear achievements,"

Ahmadinejad told a crowd at Tehran’s Azadi (Freedom) Square in a speech relayed live on state television.



Feb 11, 2012, 7:43pm  0 notes      

A fictional short clip. Cloverfield style.

In 2013, Israel is under devastating attacks from Iran. 

The home video is the remnant of a flash drive recovered by a United Nations reconnaissance team after an Iranian first strike with nuclear warheads.

THE LAST DAY-היום האחרון - by Israeli film maker Ronen Barany

[*But then while this is happening to Israeli side, Iranian side should also getting hit with nuclear warheads too. ]



February 02, 2012, 6:31am  3 notes