Assad’s bet appears to be that if anything, the spillover of Syria’s war into its neighbors will revitalize this attention, but to his benefit. The regime in Damascus believes that the international community will act to pressure the various sides to end the conflict, without the fall of the Baathist regime.

Assad could also be convinced that any concerted international action will generate support domestically for his embattled regime, since many Syrians are loathe to publicly support foreign intervention in what they believe should be a purely domestic affair.

In some ways, this is a common tactic by the Assad regime: It has no qualms about convincing itself, despite all of the available evidence to the contrary, that it is on the way to “victory.”

But it can’t be denied that the regime has lost control of large parts of its territory, and Assad’s Presidential Palace itself has now become another target in the fighting.

If the conflict drags on in such fashion, whoever “wins” in Syria will end up a loser, because of the enormous cost of putting the country back together again.

That is the thing. Newly unified (exile) oppositions - but that really doesn’t eradicate or counter fractures - what’s been already done and accumulated overnight, nor eliminate or lessen the possibility of wider conflicts in the region. Rebels might achieve long desired unity finally now with effective speed, but that’s just remains to be seen. 

Also kind of - yeah, this article doesn’t mention Lebanon is also the target of the Syrian regime - like Turkey and Israel. 

• Kurdish PKK’s moves and Kurdish autonomy area (within Syria) - is included in the focus of this new US-Turkish working group.

The United States and Turkey are setting up a working group to plan for possible scenarios in Syria, saying the strategic goal is to hasten the end of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced the initiative Saturday during Clinton’s visit to Turkey. They said the working group will coordinate details on military, intelligence, and political responses as conditions in Syria continue to deteriorate.

When asked if responses included options such as a no-fly zone over parts of Syria, Clinton did not rule it out but said it needed “greater in-depth analysis.”

Clinton told reporters that the U.S. and Turkey agree on the need to create an operations plan in case chemical weapons are used in Syria, because the need for medical aid and accommodations for refugees would increase.

And both Clinton and Davutoglu said they agree they must guard against the strife in Syria creating a power vacuum that could allow Turkey’s outlawed Kurdish militant group, the PKK, to expand or take safe haven in Syria.

Both Clinton and Davutoglu met with Syrian refugees Saturday, and Clinton also met with Syrian opposition activists.

Turkey’s HurrietDaily puts language more clear re: PKK

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Saturday that Syria must not become a haven for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants battling Turkey.
 
“We share Turkey’s determination that Syria must not become a haven for PKK terorrists whether now or after the departure of the Assad regime,” Clinton told a joint news conference in Istanbul with his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu.
 
At the press conference, Davutoglu warned against a “power vacuum” in conflict-torn Syria being exploited by the PKK and said, “We need to take joint efforts to prevent a power vacuum from being formed.” 

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syria-must-not-become-a-haven-for-pkk-clinton-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=27582&NewsCatID=338

No one can verify how much of this is true - (but it is a telling piece as a whole). 

“It’s the Turks who are militarily controlling it. Turkey is the main co-ordinator/facilitator. Think of a triangle, with Turkey at the top and Saudi Arabia and Qatar at the bottom,” said a Doha-based source.

“The Americans are very hands-off on this. U.S. intel(ligence) are working through middlemen. Middlemen are controlling access to weapons and routes.”

The centre in Adana, a city in southern Turkey about 100 km (60 miles) from the Syrian border, was set up after Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Abdullah al-Saud visited Turkey and requested it, a source in the Gulf said. The Turks liked the idea of having the base in Adana so that they could supervise its operations, he added.

A Saudi foreign ministry official was not immediately available to comment on the operation.

Adana is home to Incirlik, a large Turkish/U.S. air force base which Washington has used in the past for reconnaissance and military logistics operations. It was not clear from the sources whether the anti-Syrian “nerve centre” was located inside Incirlik base or in the city of Adana.

Qatar, the tiny gas-rich Gulf state which played a leading part in supplying weapons to Libyan rebels, has a key role in directing operations at the Adana base, the sources said. Qatari military intelligence and state security officials are involved.

“Three governments are supplying weapons: Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia,” said a Doha-based source.

Ankara has officially denied supplying weapons.

“All weaponry is Russian. The obvious reason is that these guys (the Syrian rebels) are trained to use Russian weapons, also because the Americans don’t want their hands on it. All weapons are from the black market. The other way they get weapons is to steal them from the Syrian army. They raid weapons stores.”

The source added: “The Turks have been desperate to improve their weak surveillance, and have been begging Washington for drones and surveillance.” The pleas appear to have failed. “So they have hired some private guys come do the job.”

• Turkey threatened that it will not allow the Syrian Kurdistan to emerge - it will attack (Turkey fears Syrian Kurdistan turning into Kurdish PKK’s operation base.) 
• But experts say it is too risky for Turkey to actually invade into Syrian territory
• Turkey could use Sunni ties/influence to moderate the situation with Syrian (and Iraqi) Kurdish leadership
• Turkish FM is heading to Erbil, Iraq for that purpose next week? 

“If Turkey brings soldiers onto Syrian soil by itself and not as part of an international operation, it would be an open provocation to Russia and Iran,” said Cengiz Candar of the daily Radikal newspaper.

Hurriyet daily news writer Semih Idiz said any military operation would be doomed to lead Turkey into “new and unwelcome adventures, which will not only ruin the ongoing rapprochement with Kurdish northern Iraq, but also aggravate the Kurdish problem in Turkey.”

Analysts say Turkey must stick with diplomacy and work with the region’s Arab Sunni tribes, which hold sway over the largely Sunni Kurdish population.

“They have an influence on these people, so if Turkey can cooperate with these Arab Sunni tribes then we can cut the influence of PKK and PYD on the territory,” Dincer said.

The PYD, or Kurdish Democratic Union Party, is a Syrian Kurdish group close to the PKK.

[…]

Ankara could find solutions in the town of Erbil in Iraq’s Kurdish region, where officials could use their influence among various Kurdish movements to defuse tensions with Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is due to head to Erbil next week.

It’s kind of hard to get full overview of moves re: Syrian Kurdistan (emerging).

This WSJ piece is seeing it more from the angle of Turkey-PKK rivalry/conflict and Assad regime-PKK ties. How much PKK’s role and prospect re: currently emerging Syrian Kurdistan (will PKK use Syrian Kurdistan as attack launching pad or base against Turkey? will Syrian Kurdistan let that happen?) - is the crux of the issue Turkey is reacting right now. Seems.

ANTAKYA—Turkey warned that it might take action to stop groups it deemed “terrorists” from forming a Kurdish-run region in Syria, underscoring Ankara’s growing concern that such Kurdish rule in Syria’s north could provide sanctuary to militants.

“We will not allow a terrorist group to establish camps in northern Syria and threaten Turkey,” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in Ankara on Thursday ahead of a trip to London. “If there is a step which needs to be taken against the terrorist group, we will definitely take this step.”

Read More»

1. Turkey finds no traces of explosives on debris of downed jets
2. Experts saying Turkish jets probably lost control while making manoeuvre to dodge missiles

After concluding a partial survey of the remains of the Phantom F-4, Turkey’s general staff issued a statement saying: “No traces of explosives or flammable products were found on the debris recovered from the sea.”

The findings added a bizarre twist to an incident that provoked a major diplomatic crisis between the two countries, leading to Turkey stationing missile batteries along its border with Syria.

 …… experts concluding that the aircraft probably crashed due to human error after the pilots failed to perform an evasive manoeuvre to avoid the Syrian missile, it seemed likely that Turkey would still continue to blame the loss of the plane on Syria.

Handling of all points raised in this piece - doesn’t seem credible. But it looks it’s ramming through major key - pivotal issues re: Turkey’s policy towards Syria. 

How far Turkey can really push aggressive policy against Syria - or how it could backfire. It’s a very complex subject and possible worst fall-out can be huge (such as regional war.) 

The souring of relations over the past year has provoked concern among Turks that Syria may revive its former support for Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) insurgents in southeastern Turkey.

“It’s possible the Turks were sending jets in the area in response to an apparent escalation of the PKK’s activities,” Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, told Reuters.

“Turkey may suspect that Syria and Iran are supporting Kurdish rebel activities now as a reaction to Turkish support of the Syrian revolt,” he said.

However, Khashan said he did not expect a harsh military reaction from Turkey. “It is under a tight leash by the United States. They don’t want to start a war tomorrow.” […]

It was unclear why the Syrians had shot down the aircraft, which, having left a base in Malatya, was flying close to a corridor linking Turkey with Turkish forces on Northern Cyprus.

“The Syrian military may have taken a calculated gamble by downing the Turkish plane, which could boost the morale of Assad’s loyalists after increased defections from the military,” said Yasser Saadeldine, an opposition Syrian commentator.

“A Turkish retaliation would fit into the fantasy he (Assad) is peddling that the uprising is a foreign conspiracy.”

Up to 100 fighters from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) launched simultaneous dawn attacks on three military observation points in Hakkari province near Turkey’s mountainous border with Iraq, killing eight soldiers and wounding 19, the sources said.

In subsequent clashes, Turkish troops killed 18 PKK fighters, the prime minister’s office said. […]

The head of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), whose members are frequently accused of ties to the rebels, made a striking call for the PKK to halt hostilities.

“The PKK should stop all kinds of armed activity. The government should also halt (military) operations. Let them give a political solution a chance,” BDP Chairman Selahattin Demirtas told a meeting of the party’s parliamentary group.

“This war must end. The deaths must stop. We can’t stand by and watch the youngsters kill each other,” he said.

The PKK fighters used rocket launchers and rifles at the start of the attacks and operations were continuing against the militants, the sources said. The militants were believed to have crossed the border from nearby northern Iraq.

Several thousand PKK militants are based in mountain hideouts in northern Iraq, from where they regularly launch attacks on state targets in mainly Kurdish southeast Turkey.